2019 Will Be The Greatest Showcasing Of Warlike Politics In Nigeria Since 1999 - Andrew Efemini

POSTPONEMENT OF EDO GOVERNORSHIP ELECTIONS

I just want all of us to use the postponement of the governorship elections in Edo state by INEC to reflect on our 'democracy' and its implications for our future. I hope we make the right calls following this decision.

Security issues are not open to pettiness and requires serious
discretion. With this in mind, the following facts are emerging:
1. There was a terrible mix up in fixing elections on a day national examination will be taking place. There were protests over this mix up and security agents are at wisdom to step in to allow the examination to hold. This for me is the most plausible reason for the postponement.
2. The question is why don't government be frank and take responsibility for the mix up.
3. Assuming the actual reason is real security threat then we are in real trouble. It simply means that non state actors have acquired sufficient coercive threat to undermine national events. This possibility is scary. 
4. There is also the possibility that the ordinary people have become time bomb against the Nigerian state given the level of hunger and poverty in the country. May be the hunger driven voters would be unpredictable. 
5. Speaking seriously, we need to appreciate the fact that violence or the fear of violence has become part of our politics and elections. 
6. The fear of violence led to postponement of presidential elections in 2015. This then was to create voting conditions in the northeast. 
7. Violence was used as reason by INEC to either cancel or postpone elections in the past. This is the case in Bayelsa, Rivers, Kogi,  Ekiti, etc. 
8. As a matter of fact violence now plays an influential role in Nigerian elections with pervasive regularity. The implication of this is that violence or threat of violence has now become a major factor in determining who wins an election.
9. Since the state is supposed to have monopoly right over violence, it means the possibility of the state using violence to undermine elections cannot be ruled out.
10. The use of violence or threat of violence by state and non state actors remain a major reason why elections are a sham in Nigeria.
11. We have to appreciate these negative events within the context of warlike politics in Nigeria and Africa.
12. Warlike politics fueled by the relation of state power to primitive accumulation. In Nigeria and most African states, it is 'capture state power and every other thing will be added to you'. 

THE FUTURE OF ELECTIONS IN EDO AND NIGERIA

The truth is that because of the nature of state power, Obasanjo's 'do or die' politics cannot but dominate our elections. The stakes are becoming higher with state power:
1. Determining who will walk the streets a free man or be behind bars.
2. Determining who will secure contracts and therefore economic power.
3. Determining who is marginalized and who is incorporated in the 'game' or regime.
4. Determining whose businesses are shut down and whose businesses are patronized.

The dilemma is that we need to also conduct elections with the enigmatic consequences outlined above. 

In all that we have said development is relegated to the background with state actors listing projects executed under their regimes as dividends of democracy. 

Elections are now held and parties try to win elections even when they have used power to bring ruin against the people. 

Elections in Nigeria including Edo elections would remain violent as long as the people are TREATED AS MEANS RATHER THAN END by the political class.

I am scared that we are not treating the need for a national rebirth with the urgency it requires. 

The PDP and APC trade of words and accusations is fascinating to watch. The reason why APC is struggling in Edo state in spite of the experience of the governor of the state is that the people are worse off economically. Like the governor rightly said the factors causing poverty in Edo state are beyond his power to deal with. He is not in charge of monetary policies and fuel price. But his party does.

Finally, we should not expect free and fair elections until we take the democratization project very seriously. Once we carry out the just and fair reforms, violence will give way for the will of the people to prevail. 2019 WILL BE THE GREATEST SHOWCASING OF WARLIKE POLITICS IN NIGERIA SINCE 1999. THERE IS DANGER